Contemporary Global Political and Economic Processes and their Impact on the Economy of Republic of Uzbekistan

Abstract

The article examines the channels through which global political and economic shifts — geoeconomic fragmentation, trade and sanctions restrictions, the Middle East energy shock and the technology investment cycle — are transmitted to the economy of Uzbekistan. The aim is to quantify the scale of these effects and to identify which of them strengthen and which weaken national resilience. The study applies comparative analysis, ratio calculations and a transmission-channel comparison based on data from the IMF, the EBRD, the National Statistics Committee, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Investment, Industry and Trade for 2022 to the first half of 2026. Real GDP grew by 7,7 % in 2025 against roughly 3,3 % worldwide, and accelerated to 8,5 % in the first half of 2026 even as the IMF cut its global forecast to 3,0 %. Growth was underpinned by remittances ($18,9 billion, about 12,8 % of GDP), foreign investment ($43,1 billion) and high gold prices. At the same time, the analysis reveals vulnerabilities: a heavy concentration of remittances on a single corridor (about 78% in the first half of 2025), a risk of overheating and slower disinflation. The paper proposes measures to diversify external linkages and raise export complexity.